In a recent twist of geopolitics, Russia has accused the United States of planning events to destabilize its close ally Bangladesh following the January 7 elections. The allegations, drawing parallels with the “Arab Spring”, shed light on the intricate dynamics of great power competition in South Asia. Earlier, China slammed the US for its alleged interference in Bangladesh.

Focusing on US interests and the perceived culture of vengeance, the Bangladesh government should explore sustainable solutions to navigate these complexities.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson MV Zakharova’s statement implies that the US might resort to destabilizing tactics if the election results do not align with its interests. The reference to the Arab Spring, a series of uprisings triggered by corruption and economic stagnation in the Arab world, adds a layer of complexity to the accusations.

Then Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen swiftly ruled out any possibility of an Arab Spring scenario, emphasizing the country’s commitment to stability. The ruling Awami League general secretary, Obaidul Quader, echoed this sentiment, projecting a united front against external influence.

Dhaka’s concerns over the US role are amplified due to the 2021 sanctions on RAB and some of its top officials and the new visa policy for Bangladesh announced in May 2023.

In the backdrop of the sanctions and visa policy, US Ambassador in Bangladesh Peter Haas’s engagement with BNP and other parties and civil society leaders who are critical of the government has been a focal point in the accusations.

The envoy’s advocacy for human rights, a level playing field for opposition, defence deals, aircraft purchases, deep-sea block awards to Exxon Mobil, sheltering the Rohingyas, and labour law amendments reflect a comprehensive approach to shaping Bangladesh’s policies. On this, political observers and ruling party leaders criticize the US for its selective campaigns in “unfriendly Bangladesh”.

To overcome the mounting pressure and to make a strong footing, the government of Sheikh Hasina chose to play a double-edged card: she has strengthened ties with Russia, China, Japan, the UK, France, and India, of whom the US is closely linked to India, Japan, and the UK.

The alleged US interference comes at a critical time, with Bangladesh witnessing political tensions around the January 7 elections.

The BNP’s two-year-long movement, demanding the government’s resignation, has failed, leading to a decision to boycott the polls and urging people to stay away from polling centres. This failure aligns with the narrative of potential external interference, adding fuel to the accusations. Rampant violence on the streets, including lynching police members and arson attacks on passenger buses, made it obvious that the BNP would lose public support.

Political observers say that by boycotting the election this time while securing a greater support base at home and abroad, the BNP has made another big mistake, like they did in 2014 and 2018, by resorting to different strategies to ensure its return to power instead of participating in polls for the sake of democracy—to speak out for the voters and ensure their rights.

Experts suspect that the BNP decided to boycott the polls, adhering to the fluffy promises made by the US and anti-government civil society leaders.

The focus on US interests in Bangladesh raises questions about the extent of external influence in the country’s internal affairs. The multifaceted nature of the US ambassador’s engagements, spanning human rights, defence, economic deals, and regional issues, suggests a broad scope of US interests in shaping Bangladesh’s trajectory. It implies that the US wants a friendly government in power, or they would force the incumbent government to bow down and agree to its demands.

The perceived culture of vengeance, as implied by the accusations, adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The historical context of the Arab Spring as a response to corruption and economic stagnation parallels Bangladesh’s internal challenges. The government’s proactive denial of an Arab Spring scenario aims to safeguard its image of stability and resilience against external narratives.

While the BNP leaders have warned many times of a Sri Lanka-like situation in Bangladesh, given the fate of the corrupt officials of the island nation in May 2022, and the US—the self-proclaimed world leader accused of interfering in different countries for its own interests—supporting the opposition demands blindly, it seems that the accusations by Russia (and also by China) are not unrealistic.

For Bangladesh, navigating these geopolitical waters requires a delicate balance. The government must assert its sovereignty and resist external interference while acknowledging the importance of diplomatic relations. Addressing US concerns, particularly regarding human rights and a level playing field for opposition, can contribute to fostering constructive dialogue so that the BNP participates in the election.

The accusations and denials surrounding Russia’s claims, US interests, and the perceived culture of vengeance highlight the challenges Bangladesh faces in maintaining stability amid external pressures. Navigating these complexities requires a nuanced approach, balancing national interests, diplomatic relations, and internal stability. The Bangladesh government’s ability to steer this course will shape the nation’s trajectory in the ever-evolving landscape of global geopolitics.